China's July trade numbers improved slightly, which pushed the Australian dollar higher yesterday despite Canberra issuing a poor jobs report.迷你倉 But whether the mainland can meet its annual trade targets still remains uncertain. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan left its policy unchanged, while the Bank of England decided not to raise interest rates until unemployment dips below 7 percent. German data in recent weeks have also been impressive. So most markets look more or less stabilized. Better economic data outside Asia may spur more inflows to the European and US markets, but not really helping local stocks, especially during the traditionally quiet summer holiday month. Goldman Sachs issued a scary report on Wednesday, saying China's shadow banking has expanded very fast from 2008 to 2013. As文件倉ets of mainland banks will reach US$14 trillion (HK$109.2 trillion) at the end of this year. This is comparable to the cumulative assets of US commercial banks. But if the debt bubble bursts in the mainland, bad debts may reach US$3 trillion, or 18.37 trillion yuan (HK$24.5 trillion)! There are four trigger points that can spark this. First, weak demand due to falling exports or over capacity. Second, tighter control and regulation. Third, lack of guarantees from mainland banks on wealth management products and trust loans, and local government debt problems. Last, the property bubble bursting. Goldman Sachs said the first three points carry more immediate risks. Dr Check and/or The Standard bear no responsibility for any investment decision made based on the views expressed in t his column. 存倉
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